The Fed meets Wednesday with markets expecting a small rate hike, and a surprise hold would be bad news for the dollar and good for gold.

• Wall Street is betting on a quarter-point hike after a hot inflation report, but a hold is possible under new Fed chair Kevin Walsh.
• Walsh was picked by Trump, who wants rates lower, so his independence is the real question.
• Washington now pays over a trillion dollars a year in interest on its debt — more than it spends on defense — so every rate increase hurts the government's own budget.
• A hold would signal the Fed is protecting Washington's ability to borrow rather than protecting the dollar, and would likely push the dollar down further.
• Gas, diesel and oil prices are climbing again as Houthi attacks knock out a major Saudi pipeline, adding to the inflation problem.

Outlook: Big investors including Ray Dalio and Rick Rule are moving into gold and gold miners, betting the dollar keeps weakening whichever way the Fed goes.