China is pressuring Washington to hold off on new weapons sales to Taiwan before a Trump-Xi meeting in late September, a bad sign for Taiwan and for hopes of a real thaw between the two powers.

• Beijing has asked the US not to approve new arms sales to Taiwan before the summit, and Xi may cancel the trip if it does.
• Tariffs, tech export controls, AI, and supply chains are the main items on the table.
• The key question is how much each side will trade on trade to ease the tech fight — and which core interests neither will touch.
• Taiwan's worry is that its own security gets used as a bargaining chip in a US-China deal.
• Even a deal would not end the strategic rivalry; it would only change how it is fought.

Outlook: Expect a limited, transactional agreement at best, with Taiwan Strait and Indo-Pacific security still tense afterward.