Markets are leaning toward a Fed rate hike next week, but the contrarian bet here is that rates stay put — a call that would be good for stocks and borrowers if it lands.

• Pricing right now favors a hike at next Wednesday's Fed meeting, with a hold seen as less likely.
• The bet against that: rates hold steady, with 75% of a portfolio placed on that outcome.
• The reasoning rests on Kevin Warsh's presence at the Fed rather than any inside information.
• It's admittedly a gut call — the rate decision is a group vote, not one person's choice.

Outlook: Next Wednesday's Fed decision settles it, and a surprise hold would catch a lot of positioning offside.