China is leaning on the US to hold off new weapons sales to Taiwan ahead of the September 24 summit, a short-term win for Beijing but likely only a delay rather than a cancellation.

• Beijing has signaled Xi Jinping could postpone his US trip if Washington approves new Taiwan arms sales before the meeting.
• The package under review is worth about $14 billion and covers Taiwan's air defense and other military gear.
• Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund expects no big announcement in the next two weeks, but says the sales will resume — the question is when, not if.
• China again called Taiwan the "red line" in its relationship with the US.
• No US official has confirmed any decision to delay or drop the sale.

Outlook: The arms package will likely stay frozen until after the summit, then move forward once the diplomacy is done.