Abe Changed How Japan Sees Taiwan; Lai I-chung: Taiwan and Japan Must Break Out of "Warm Among the Public, Cold Between Governments"

Sep 13, 2026

Taiwan-Japan relations have shifted from "the most unfamiliar neighbors" to "the closest friends," which is good news for Taiwan, but security cooperation at the official level remains stalled.

  • Shinzo Abe's assertion that "a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency, and therefore a contingency for the Japan-U.S. alliance" fundamentally changed the way Japan sees Taiwan.
  • Taiwan was previously placed within a "Japan-China-Taiwan" triangular relationship, in which it could never come out ahead; under a "U.S.-Japan-Taiwan" framework instead, Taiwan became an asset to the U.S.-Japan alliance rather than a burden.
  • Civil society exchanges are thriving: tourism, disaster relief, and cultural exchange are all close, but strategic and military cooperation between the two governments remains restricted.
  • TSMC's investment in Kumamoto has reversed the old industrial relationship in which "Japan was the big brother and Taiwan the little brother," turning it into mutual assistance in both directions.
  • The Japanese public does not want to be drawn into a war in the Taiwan Strait, and such misgivings need to be dispelled through sustained communication at the civil society level.

Outlook: The next step should focus on establishing high-level strategic communication, military coordination, and mechanisms for cooperation in third countries, while setting clear targets for two-way tourism, investment, and technology cooperation, turning goodwill among the public into an institutionalized partnership.

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