The Iran war is going badly enough that top Republicans are quietly distancing themselves from it, which is bad news for Trump, for Vance, and for a US military running low on weapons.

• Vance called US commanders in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia directly for unfiltered reports on how the war is really going.
• Commanders told him weapons stockpiles are badly depleted, leaving less ability to deter China, Russia, and North Korea.
• Iranian strikes damaged nine US warplanes at a base in Jordan, though Trump publicly denied any damage at all.
• Vance and Rubio both warned Trump his economic blockade of Iran would fail and could drag the conflict on for years.
• Rubio now looks set to skip a 2028 run and back Vance instead, a sign the party expects heavy political damage.

Outlook: Trump says the war ends right after the midterms, but the leaks from his own camp suggest worse news is coming first.