Two rules for drawing trend lines that actually hold

Sep 12, 2026

Most trend lines traders draw on Bitcoin charts are imaginary, and trading their breaks is a fast way to lose money.

  • A trend line is only valid if it connects real turning points — highs with lower highs on both sides, or lows with higher lows on both sides.
  • Two touches is just a guess; three touches makes it a real trend, unless both touches came on unusually heavy volume.
  • Heavy-volume anchors are the strongest ones and can get respected months or even years later, so extending those lines forward gives free levels to watch.
  • A steep, near-vertical line signals a short-lived trend — assets that go straight up tend to come straight back down.
  • A break is not failure, it is information: the old support usually flips into resistance and gets sold.

Outlook: Horizontal levels matter more than diagonal lines, and a trend reversal is only confirmed when price closes past the last major swing point.

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