Traders lose from oversizing, not from being wrong
Most trading losses come from betting too big rather than from bad calls — a warning aimed at anyone on a winning streak.
- Being right on a string of trades breeds overconfidence, and that is when position sizes creep up.
- One oversized trade that goes the wrong way can wipe out the gains from ten good ones.
- The damage is not the wrong call itself — it is how much money was riding on it.
- Traders who skip risk rules, or apply them out of order, end up flat or worse despite a good hit rate.
Outlook: Sizing discipline matters most right after a hot streak, when the urge to press bets is strongest.