Russia's military morale problem is getting worse
Russian troops are deserting in growing numbers, a slow bleed that is bad for Moscow's war effort and a quiet advantage for Ukraine.
- Desertions have climbed past 70,000 by some estimates — close to 10% of Russia's force in Ukraine.
- Many recruits get only days of training instead of the months required, so they die fast and wreck the little equipment they have.
- Commanders run a side business selling soldiers a way out — payments to skip assaults, or bribes for fake injury papers.
- Soldiers who refuse are sometimes killed by their own side, and those who flee are often hunted down, beaten, and sent back to the front.
- Deserters who reach Europe find few doors open: Germany approves under 5% of their asylum claims, partly out of fear that Russian agents pose as defectors.
Outlook: Moscow will keep holding the line through fear rather than morale, and British intelligence figures it will take 5 to 10 years after the fighting stops to rebuild a properly trained army.