Trump has promised every American adult a $5,000 check if Republicans win both chambers in the midterms, a pitch critics call both unaffordable and close to vote-buying.

• The promise came at a GOP midterm convention in Dallas on September 9, branded the "Trump dividend."
• Paying every adult $5,000 would cost about a trillion dollars, money the government does not have with the national debt now at $40 trillion.
• The proposed funding source is tariff revenue, but much of that money may have to be refunded to companies that paid it.
• Offering cash in exchange for votes is drawing accusations that it is a bribe, and past promised payouts, like the DOGE checks, never arrived.
• The pitch lands as anger over the cost of living runs high, with small business owners squeezed by diesel above $6 a gallon and rising borrowing costs.

Outlook: The checks are almost certainly not coming, and the promise is likely to be read as a sign Republicans are worried about the midterms.