US officials are quietly telling Trump the Iran war could drag on for years, and oil prices are spiking — bad news for drivers, the economy, and Republicans heading into the midterms.

• Trump says publicly the war ends right after the election; his own advisers, including JD Vance and Marco Rubio, reportedly say it could run past January 2029.
• The naval blockade is not expected to force Iran to give in, and a long siege would damage the US and world economy.
• The Pentagon is acting like a long war: troop deployments extended into 2027, air defense units with no end date, and fresh Marine and fighter rotations into the region.
• Diesel has blown past $200 a barrel as traders stop believing the war will end quickly, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and Houthi forces holding much of Yemen.
• Marco Rubio has privately ruled out a 2028 run, a sign of how unpopular the war has become inside the party.

Outlook: Expect higher gas prices, rising inflation, and growing political damage as the conflict settles into a long stalemate.