Australia's former prime minister now puts the odds of a Chinese attack on Taiwan at roughly one in three before the end of 2028 — a warning that lands harder because it comes from someone long seen as friendly to Beijing.

• Kevin Rudd told an Australian foreign affairs audience in Canberra that a Chinese military move on Taiwan is not the most likely outcome, but the risk is climbing — not from 5% to 10%, he said, but to about a third.
• The shift matters because Rudd has spent years being labelled pro-China in Australian politics; his call for Australia, the US and other allies to strengthen deterrence is a notable turn.
• Most warnings have focused on 2027, the centenary of the People's Liberation Army and the year of the Chinese Communist Party's 21st congress.
• Rudd is watching a different clock: Xi Jinping likely secures a fourth term in 2027, then Taiwan holds a presidential election in January 2028 and the US votes later that year — a window in which Xi might misread American resolve.
• Yasuda Akio pushes back on panic, noting a cross-strait invasion is one of the hardest military operations there is and arguing the PLA will not be ready that soon.

Outlook: The real danger is complacency — Taiwan is being urged to keep building up defence, ammunition and energy stockpiles and deepen security ties with the US, Japan and Australia, whichever year the pressure peaks.