Former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd says there is a one-in-three chance China moves militarily against Taiwan in the coming years — bad news for Taiwan, and for Australia, which could be pulled into the fight.

• Taiwan's January 2028 presidential election is the moment to watch.
• If Lai Ching-te's DPP wins again, that would be a fourth straight term in power, and Beijing may read it as a red line.
• China could use that result to invoke its 2005 anti-secession law as grounds for war.
• The danger is not only 2028 — Beijing might misjudge how far the US would go to defend Taiwan and see an earlier opening.
• A conflict would not stay local: Australia and other countries in the region risk being dragged in.

Outlook: Tension around the Taiwan Strait is likely to build as the 2028 election approaches, with the result itself the key trigger to watch.