Republicans are on track to lose both the House and Senate in November, a bad sign for Trump's second term and a warning for anyone betting on stable markets.

• Polls point to Democrats taking Congress, which would bring subpoenas, investigations, and a likely impeachment push.
• The core reason is betrayal: Trump won on staying out of foreign wars and is now deep in conflicts with Iran and Russia.
• Energy costs went the opposite way from the promise to cut them in half — diesel is near record highs and close to $8 in California.
• Both wars are driving up energy prices worldwide, and Washington has loosened its rules on when nuclear weapons can be used.
• Promises on releasing the Epstein and JFK files and on fighting the drug crisis went nowhere, while 70,000 Americans died of overdoses last year.

Outlook: A Democratic Congress would likely mean two years of political warfare at home, with the wars abroad — and high energy prices — continuing to escalate.