Two separate payout plans are on the table before the election — one small and already funded, one huge and likely to add to the national debt, which has bond investors nervous.

• The $500 checks come from leftover fees collected on the ObamaCare marketplace website, so they add no new debt.
• Roughly a million people in 30 states qualify — you must have bought coverage on the federal exchange and paid full price without a subsidy.
• States running their own exchanges, like California and New York, are shut out, so the money lands mostly in Republican-leaning states.
• The separate $5,000-per-adult plan, promised only if Republicans sweep Congress, would mean well over a trillion dollars in fresh borrowing.
• Government bond yields moved higher, a sign lenders are pricing in more debt, though the big stimulus talk is only part of that.

Outlook: The $500 checks are meant to land before the election, while the $5,000 promise stays a campaign pledge that markets are treating with heavy skepticism.