Trump is offering every American adult $5,000 if Republicans hold Congress in the midterms — a move markets and foreign media are treating as a desperate stunt, and one that would add over $1 trillion to the deficit.

• Trump calls it the "Trump dividend," payable only if Republicans keep the House and Senate, and only spendable inside the US.
• It would cost more than $1 trillion on top of an already massive annual deficit, and Congress would have to approve it.
• Traders are ignoring it as a non-starter, but say it signals the White House isn't serious about the deficit — bad for government bonds.
• Poll numbers are sliding across swing states, and two-thirds of voters think the country is on the wrong track.
• Meanwhile Iranian missiles damaged US warplanes at a base in Jordan, adding to the pressure on Trump over the war.

Outlook: The payout almost certainly won't happen, but the deficit worry it feeds will keep weighing on bond markets into the midterms.