Trump has dangled a $5,000 payment to every American adult ahead of the midterms — a huge giveaway that markets would likely read as inflationary and bad for interest rates.

• The promise is tied to Republicans keeping both the House and Senate, with Democrats currently favored to sweep.
• Paying every adult would cost well over a trillion dollars, dwarfing much of what Washington has already spent.
• Bond markets would likely push interest rates higher, and the Fed could be forced to hike — the opposite of what Treasury Secretary Bessent is trying to do.
• A failed Treasury operation this week meant to pull rates down instead sent them up, showing how little room there is for more spending.
• Trump also said he will not negotiate with Iran until after the election, even as tanker attacks keep hitting oil supply.

Outlook: The checks are a long shot given Republican infighting over spending, but the pitch alone adds pressure on interest rates and oil prices into the election.