Russia is now barred from getting nicotine pouches, a small addition to years of sanctions that is unlikely to change anything except who profits from smuggling.

• Russia has already lost cheap energy sales to the West and access to the SWIFT banking network.
• Cutting off nicotine pouches is a minor step next to those earlier penalties.
• The likely result is a black market, with smugglers moving product across the Moldovan border.
• People in Moldova and Belarus stand to make money filling the gap.

Outlook: Expect the ban to be shrugged off in Russia and quietly worked around through neighboring countries.