US policy toward Iran and Lebanon is being driven by domestic lobbying rather than American interests, and the risk of a pre-election flare-up is rising.

• The decision to pull back and let Israeli forces stay in Lebanon came from Israel lobby pressure at home, not US strategic interest.
• Iran is unlikely to wait quietly until after November's midterms and may strike first to box Trump in.
• Talk of using a small nuclear weapon on hardened Iranian sites is dismissed as unworkable — those facilities are built to survive it.
• The bigger danger is that there is no "free shot": any nuclear use invites consequences the US cannot control.

Outlook: A move by Iran before the November elections is seen as a real possibility, with pressure building on Trump to change course.