Iran, Houthi, and nuclear escalation in the Middle East
Escalation on every front — Iran, Yemen, and Iran's nuclear program — is pushing oil and food prices higher, which is bad news for anyone worried about inflation or interest rates.
- Trump's own advisers now think the Iran war could drag on to the end of his term in 2029, even as he says it ends right after the midterms.
- Houthi fighters seized the port of Mocha on the Red Sea and are threatening Saudi ships, and Saudi oil output has fallen to its lowest level this year.
- Iran is digging deeper at Pickax Mountain, a nuclear site buried too far underground for US bunker-buster bombs to reach.
- Three of the world's food and fertilizer routes — the Black Sea, Hormuz, and now the Red Sea — are disrupted at once, which keeps food prices climbing.
- The IMF says the energy shock is not over and progress on bringing inflation down has stalled, and markets now lean toward a US rate hike next week.
Outlook: With no peace deal in sight, expect oil, food prices, and pressure on central banks to keep rising.