Taiwan, Japan and the US all have reason to raise interest rates next week, but standing still is looking like the popular answer — a neutral, wait-and-see setup for markets.

• Global growth is running near 3% for 2026, while the drop in inflation that started in 2022 has stalled out.
• The Middle East conflict has pushed up energy costs for importers, and heavy AI spending is propping up prices in tech supply-chain countries.
• Sorting countries by growth and inflation shows the textbook answer breaking down: India is growing fast with high inflation, Taiwan is growing fast with mild inflation, and Japan and the eurozone are stuck with weak growth and high prices.
• China is doing the opposite of the rulebook — easing money to prop up a slowing economy even as its inflation fades.
• The US is the odd one out among the slow-growth group, with better-than-expected numbers fueling calls for a rate hike.

Outlook: With economies drifting between quadrants and no clear trend, most central banks are likely to hold rates steady rather than move either way.