Bitcoin looks set for a shallow, boring pullback over the next week before its next push higher — mildly negative short term, positive after the dip.

• Bitcoin has now spent an unusually long stretch trading away from a key 5-day trend line, and in 15 years it has never stayed away longer than it is now.
• The reconnect points to about $76,500, and history says that once it touches, price bounces roughly three quarters of the time.
• A golden cross just fired — the classic long-term bullish signal — but it usually brings a one to two week dip first, landing in the same $76,000 area.
• The Fed meets next Wednesday, and the bet here is it holds rates steady, against market pricing that leans toward a hike.
• CPI lands Friday and could shake things up, but the base case is sideways drift into the middle of next week.

Outlook: Expect a slow grind down toward $76,500 in the coming days, then a bounce — unless Bitcoin reclaims $79,000 first, which would mean the low is already in.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Slightly bearish short term into next Wednesday, bullish after the reconnect.
• **Buy / accumulate:** $76,550 and anything below it; deeper scalp zone $73,500-$74,000, worst case $72,565.
• **Support:** $76,500-$76,550 (5 EMA on the 5-day), $76,000 higher low, $75,500 mid-zone.
• **Resistance:** $79,000 daily midband, $79,763 today's high.
• **Targets:** ~2.5% bounce off the reconnect, back above $76,550 within one 5-day period; $77,628 if price pulls the moving average up instead.
• **Invalidation:** A reclaim of $79,000-$79,763 flips the thesis — the low would already be in.