Bitcoin is going through an unusually long stretch away from its short-term trend line, a setup that has historically snapped back — neutral for now, but a bounce is statistically overdue.

• Bitcoin normally pulls back to its 5-day average after any given 5-day close, with better than seven-in-ten odds.
• Two closes in a row without that snap-back happen less than a fifth of the time.
• The current run is now three closes without reconnecting, working on a fourth.
• Four is the most this has ever stretched on this timeframe, so the setup is at its historical limit.

Outlook: A move back toward the short-term average looks likely soon, since the market has never held this disconnect longer than four closes.