Israel is openly planning around how far it can hit Turkish forces in Syria without triggering NATO's mutual defense clause, a dangerous escalation for Turkey and for the alliance.

• Israel struck an air base in northern Syria near the Idlib, Aleppo and Hama borders, hitting infrastructure before Turkish troops and air defenses could move in.
• An Israeli publication laid out the logic plainly: NATO's Article 5 covers Turkish soil, not Turkish soldiers standing on Syrian ground.
• The strategy is to destroy the facilities first, since killing Turkish troops later would risk retaliation and a fight with a NATO member.
• Turkey has been rebuilding Syria's army, training its soldiers and supplying equipment, and Israel does not want any neighbor with a real military.
• Trump offered no criticism of the strikes, saying only that he could not talk about it, while continuing to attack NATO allies for not backing him against Iran.

Outlook: Expect more Israeli strikes aimed at blocking a Turkish military presence in Syria, and a growing question of whether Washington would honor its NATO obligation to Turkey at all.