A leading US research group says China's economy is stuck and its push into high-tech manufacturing won't repair the damage — bad news for China's workers and for its trading partners.

• China's growth now leans almost entirely on exports because people and businesses at home aren't spending.
• The root problem is a decade-long lending boom: China took on about a third of all new bank credit in the world after the 2008 crisis, and those loans are now coming due.
• Trillions of dollars in bad debt and years of low-payoff building projects leave Beijing little room to stimulate anything.
• The bet on advanced manufacturing, AI and robots creates few jobs, since these industries need capital, not workers.
• Beijing is stuck: it can't easily tax households more and won't reform state-owned or local government firms.

Outlook: If China keeps making more than it can consume, the extra goods go abroad — and trade fights with the rest of the world get worse.