The race for Hsinchu mayor is now confirmed as a three-way contest, with incumbent Mayor Kao Hung-an still in the lead thanks to KMT-TPP cooperation and the resources of incumbency — an unfavourable starting point for both the DPP and the pan-blue challenger.

• Kao Hung-an is seeking re-election as an independent, but has secured the backing of both the KMT and the TPP, putting her ahead of her two rivals from the outset.
• Her legal troubles are her biggest liability: she was suspended from office for one year and five months after a guilty verdict at first instance, and her governance ratings rank at the bottom.
• Recall pressure has in fact worked in her favour — she drew the highest number of "no" votes nationwide in the mid-term review, effectively clearing a hurdle.
• Chuang Ching-cheng, the DPP's nominee, got off to a slow start and has been building name recognition through diligent grassroots campaigning and policy proposals, highlighting the infrastructure record of former mayor Lin Chih-chien.
• Former KMT spokesman Ho Chih-yung was the first to declare his candidacy, but without party backing he is going it alone, relying on his city salon events.

Outlook: In the near term the race remains one of Kao Hung-an in front and the DPP playing catch-up, with the key variable being whether Ho Chih-yung siphons off pan-blue votes.