Chen I-hsin: Lee Ssu-chuan's campaign is stable, and integration in Changhua is making progress

The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has struck an optimistic tone about the year-end local elections, but doubts within the party over the nomination row in Changhua persist — a mixed signal for the pan-blue camp's grassroots.

• Chen I-hsin, director-general of the KMT's Culture and Communications Committee, said that the campaign of New Taipei mayoral candidate Lee Ssu-chuan is looking steadier and steadier, with a polling lead of 6 to 8 percentage points, beyond the margin of error.
• The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is staking its main effort on New Taipei because it has almost no chance in Taipei, Taoyuan or Taichung, leaving New Taipei as its only hope.
• The dispute over the Changhua nomination remains unresolved, with County Commissioner Wang Huei-mei again absent from the opening ceremony for candidate Wei Ping-cheng's campaign headquarters.
• Pan-blue campaign staff privately assess that the Changhua nomination row is all but beyond remedy, and that New Taipei could also be overturned if the overall electoral picture is poor.
• Interest in this year's elections is generally muted, as most races involve incumbent local governments seeking re-election, making it hard to generate excitement.

Outlook: With just over 80 days until polling day, whether the party can hold New Taipei and whether it can successfully achieve integration in Changhua will be the two key factors in the pan-blue camp's year-end fortunes.