New Taipei's mayoral race is a dead heat between the ruling DPP and the KMT, with the outcome likely decided by swing voters rather than party loyalists.

• Polls show the two main candidates within a few points of each other in a city the KMT has run for over 20 years.
• DPP candidate Su Chiao-hui started campaigning more than 800 days early, working all 29 districts with childcare and senior-care promises plus a heavy social media push.
• KMT candidate Li Si-chuan, a career engineer and public works official, is betting on ground game — big rallies from mid-September and joint campaigning with local councillors.
• Backing is lining up on both sides: Tsai Ing-wen and President Lai Ching-te headline the DPP's first big rally, while Li appears alongside sitting mayors Hou Yu-ih and Chiang Wan-an.
• An independent, Su Hui-huang, filed at the last minute and could siphon just enough votes to decide a race this tight.

Outlook: With the Taiwan People's Party out of the race, where its supporters land — blue, green, or the independent — is the biggest open question heading into the campaign's final stretch.