Taiwan's Kaohsiung mayor race is shaping up as another two-party fight, with the ruling DPP holding a lead that its rival insists has already narrowed to a coin flip.

• The DPP's Lai Jui-lung is running on continuity, leaning on the current mayor's high approval ratings and a decade each in city government and parliament.
• The KMT's Ko Chih-en has dropped the party logo from her billboards to court swing voters and claims the race is now level.
• Green camp organizers have set late September as their make-or-break point — if Ko has not closed the gap by then, they believe the race is decided.
• The KMT hopes record August rainfall and potholed roads can spark a populist wave like the one that flipped the city in 2018, though the memory of that experiment still weighs on the party.
• Three minor candidates are in the race but have too little name recognition to matter.

Outlook: Both camps launch big rallies in the coming weeks, and whether Ko can close the gap by the end of September will likely decide the contest.