The war with Iran has entered a new phase where oil itself is the target, which is bad news for drivers and good news for anyone betting on higher oil prices.

• The US sank or disabled three Iranian crude tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier and destroyer over the holiday weekend; no Americans were hurt.
• This is the first time the US has deliberately gone after oil shipments in this war, moving past its earlier practice of leaving oil infrastructure alone.
• Burning Iranian oil pushes global prices up, because China then has to buy replacement barrels elsewhere and that competition works its way down to US gas pumps.
• The Pentagon is polygraphing about 50 senior officers on the joint staff to find who leaked reports of a critical shortage of missile interceptors — a first in modern times, and a strong hint the leaks were accurate.
• Iran is expected to press harder over the next two months, with Israel's election in late October and US midterms in early November as the pressure points.

Outlook: Expect more tanker-for-tanker strikes, rising oil and gas prices, and a risk that Iran escalates to newer, harder-to-stop missiles.