The race for mayor of Hsinchu has been set as a three-way contest between incumbent Mayor Kao Hung-an, the Democratic Progressive Party's Chuang Ching-cheng and Ho Chih-yung, who comes from a Kuomintang background — but the situation clearly favours Kao.

• Although Kao registered as an independent, she has the backing of both the KMT and the Taiwan People's Party, and combined with the advantages of incumbency, her threshold for re-election is far lower than her opponents'.
• Her ongoing legal cases and poor governance ratings are liabilities, but the earlier recall vote against her failed, meaning she has survived her mid-term test.
• The DPP's Chuang Ching-cheng started late, but by working the grassroots diligently and campaigning on a "city of happiness" platform, he has markedly raised his profile and is attacking Kao's weak points on governance.
• Ho Chih-yung was the first to declare his candidacy but has no KMT support, leaving him to campaign alone on the strength of his image and city policy forums.

Outlook: if the KMT-TPP cooperation holds, Kao has the best chance of re-election; whether the DPP can narrow the gap by pressing its attack on the issues is the key thing to watch.