With the Taipei mayoral race heading into the final stretch before the year-end nine-in-one elections, the DPP's Shen Po-yang is gaining momentum, but he still does not pose a real threat to incumbent Mayor Chiang Wan-an.

• Shen Po-yang started out with low name recognition, but after more than three months of intensive campaigning, supporters now scramble to shake his hand and get autographs at every event.
• KMT city councillor Chin Hui-chu estimates the gap between the two remains over 10%, with Shen's support concentrated among younger online demographics while middle-aged and older voters know little about him.
• Municipal controversies including child abuse cases, failures to recuse over privileged interests, and exorbitantly priced sunshades have cost Chiang Wan-an 2 to 3 percentage points, with some swing voters shifting to a wait-and-see stance.
• Chiang Wan-an has deliberately kept the race low-key, declining to register in person and relying on municipal inspections and event appearances to maintain his "mayoral stature."
• With the blue and green camps' core bases each holding firm, the outcome hinges on swing voters.

Outlook: Whether that 2 to 3% erosion widens depends on the green camp's subsequent offensive and the city government's crisis management, leaving room for the race to swing.