Prices are climbing while jobs and wages lag, and political pressure on the Fed is making the picture murkier — bad for anyone living on a paycheck.

• Diesel hit a record high, and since almost everything reaches stores by truck, that cost gets passed on to shoppers.
• Gas prices are staying high too, with officials saying not to expect $3 gas before 2027 because of the Iran standoff and shipping protection in the Gulf.
• Consumers are still spending, but more of it is on debt, and the savings rate has fallen because prices have risen faster than pay.
• Trump is pressuring the Fed to cut rates and threatening broader tariffs if it does not, even as August's strong jobs report looked noisy and overstated.
• Bond traders expect long-term rates to keep rising, which would push mortgage rates higher rather than lower.
• Anthropic is lining up Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs for what could be the largest IPO ever, a sign of how stretched the AI trade has become.
• Trump's sons are advisers and investors in an Israeli drone maker that just went public, part of a wider pattern of people close to the administration profiting from its policies.

Outlook: Expect more inflation pressure from fuel costs and a loud fight over whether the Fed cuts rates before the midterms.