Taiwan's biggest local election battle is now a coin flip, and that is bad news for the KMT after more than two decades running New Taipei City.

• The DPP's Su Chiao-hui and the KMT's Li Si-chuan are polling within a few points of each other, with some surveys putting her ahead.
• Su started campaigning over 800 days early, has walked all 29 districts, and is running hard on childcare and elderly care.
• She has rolled out backing from President Lai Ching-te, Hsiao Bi-khim, former president Tsai Ing-wen, and Olympic boxing champion Lin Yu-ting.
• Li, a career engineer known for roads, streetlights, and drains, is countering with a softer personal touch and a big rally on September 12 to launch his campaign headquarters.
• The wild card is the Taiwan People's Party vote after Huang Kuo-chang dropped out, plus independent Su Hui-huang, who could pull ballots from either side.

Outlook: Whoever makes fewer mistakes and wins over undecided and TPP voters takes the city.