Taiwan's opposition KMT expects to lose ground in this year's local elections, a bad sign for the party and a possible opening for the ruling DPP.

• The party's own read is that Changhua County is close to unwinnable after a nomination fight got out of hand.
• Yilan County and Chiayi City are also seen as shaky, and three to four counties or cities the KMT now runs could flip.
• Cracks in the KMT's alliance with the smaller TPP, after a broken deal over the Zhubei mayoral race, risk spreading to Hsinchu, Keelung and New Taipei.
• New Taipei and Keelung are KMT strongholds, but weak national momentum could still cost them, and Taipei mayor Chiang Wan-an's own troubles limit how much he can help.
• Internal complaint: the leadership has no overall campaign plan and keeps fighting about itself instead of attacking the DPP's record.

Outlook: KMT chair Cheng Li-wun wants to hold even with last time, but party insiders now expect net losses when voters go to the polls at year's end.