A new analysis says China's push to replace Nvidia with homegrown AI chips is falling far short, which is bad news for Huawei and Beijing's tech ambitions and good news for Nvidia.

• Research group Epoch AI says Huawei will "almost certainly not" catch Nvidia by 2030.
• Huawei is on track to make less than 4% of Nvidia's AI computing power next year.
• If Huawei has to rely only on Chinese-made memory chips, that could fall to about 1% by 2028.
• Nvidia sold roughly two-thirds of all AI chip power late last year; Huawei was around 3%.
• Beijing set 2030 as the year China becomes the world leader in AI, a target now looking out of reach.

Outlook: US export limits and China's weak memory chip supply look set to keep Huawei far behind Nvidia for years.