The 2026 Hualien County magistrate election is seen as a decisive battle for forces opposed to Fu Kun-chi, and for the non-Fu camp, a split vote is the biggest risk.

• The 2025 recall of Fu Kun-chi failed, but it left behind nearly 50,000 voters who clearly declared themselves against him.
• Polls show Yu Shu-chen in the lead, but the combined vote share of Wei Chia-hsien and Chang Chun exceeds Yu's by more than 14 percentage points.
• There are enough anti-Fu votes; the problem is that a contest between the two men would split the vote base.
• Former Minister without Portfolio Chang Ching-sen argues that if, in the final three to four weeks before the vote, four conditions appear — a sustained lead, a gap beyond the margin of error, a win in a one-on-one matchup, and votes that can be transferred — civic groups should launch a strategic-voting push to consolidate behind one candidate.
• For the Fu faction to sustain its power, all it needs is for Wei and Chang to stay evenly matched throughout.

Outlook: Polling trends over the coming weeks will determine whether the anti-Fu camp consolidates behind a single candidate, which in turn will shape the outcome of the Hualien race.