Taiwan's year-end Hsinchu County magistrate race has turned into a genuine contest, bad news for the KMT and a rare opening for the DPP.

• Three candidates are running: the KMT's Hsu Hsin-ying, the DPP's Cheng Chao-fang, and independent newcomer Chu Ting-yu.
• Hsu is dogged by trust questions after repeated party switches and a failed blue-white alliance deal in Zhubei.
• The KMT's own base is split: veteran deputy magistrate Chen Chien-hsien dropped out but pointedly refused to call for unity.
• Angry Taiwan People's Party supporters in Zhubei, their national stronghold, are talking about voting green or spoiling ballots rather than backing the KMT.
• Cheng won Zhubei with over 40% before and is seen as moderate enough to pull white-camp votes, though his family carries a money-and-power label.

Outlook: The DPP is targeting Zhubei, Zhudong and Hukou — home to more than three-quarters of the county — and could break a 25-year blue lock if the KMT's split holds.