US forces are said to be taking Kharg Island, the terminal that handles most of Iran's oil exports — bad for Iran, and bullish for oil prices.

• Kharg Island handles 90% of Iran's oil exports, so holding it means controlling what Iran can sell.
• Cutting off that revenue is meant to force Iran to the negotiating table.
• Oil prices jumped on the news, driven by fear and uncertainty about supply.
• A full surrender looks unlikely; some kind of deal is the more realistic outcome.

Outlook: Expect oil to stay jumpy while Iran's export lifeline is in play and talks are floated.