Trump is tying US trade with major partners to the Fed lowering interest rates, and the mix of political pressure, tariffs, and a split Fed is bad news for anyone hoping for cheaper borrowing or calmer markets.

• Trump says he will halt trade with countries running a surplus against the US — the EU, Mexico, Canada — unless rates come down.
• The latest jobs report came in far above every forecast, which the White House credits to a boom in factory and data-center building.
• Wages are not keeping up with prices, and the claim that people are fine rests on them working longer hours, not earning more per hour.
• The Fed is now so divided that close votes are expected at every meeting, leaving rate decisions unpredictable until the last minute.
• Gas is above $4 and inflation is running near 3.5%, so tariffs and the Iran war are pushing rates the wrong way for Trump.

Outlook: Expect more pressure on the Fed and more trade threats heading into the midterms, with little relief on prices or borrowing costs in the near term.