Taiwan's nine-in-one local elections are under 90 days away, and the bar for "winning" is very different for the two main parties.

• The pattern of the past decade holds: the DPP wins national power, the KMT wins local races.
• The KMT took 15 of Taiwan's cities and counties last time, so even winning 14 now would count as going backwards.
• The DPP won only 5 last time, so taking 6 would already be a win.
• Party support favors the DPP over the KMT and its ally, and the DPP's leaders poll better than the KMT's new chair.
• The two races to watch are the KMT's push into Kaohsiung and the DPP's push into New Taipei, which has not changed hands in 21 years.

Outlook: Expect both sides to pour money and attention into Kaohsiung and New Taipei, with the headline seat count likely to overstate whichever party is really gaining ground.