The dollar is falling as Japan buys yen and the Fed backs off rate hikes, which is bad news for anyone paid in dollars and good news for inflation.

• The Fed signaled it will hold rates steady instead of hiking, and stocks jumped — but that means living with higher inflation.
• The US Treasury now leans heavily on short-term borrowing, a sign it cannot afford higher long-term rates.
• Japan may raise rates three times before year-end, which could pull Japanese money out of US bonds and push US borrowing costs up.
• Diesel is near record highs with the Strait of Hormuz still choked off, and those costs land on grocery shelves fast.
• A weaker dollar makes every import more expensive, stacking on top of the fuel shortage.

Outlook: Expect more pressure on the dollar and higher prices for everyday goods as Japan's rate hikes and the fuel squeeze collide.