Markets are pricing in US rate *hikes* while big Wall Street firms expect no move at all — an unusual split that means one side is about to be badly wrong.

• Long-term US government bond yields pushed back above 5% ahead of the Fed's late-July meeting, driven by bets that the Fed will tighten.
• Traders have now fully priced in a rate hike in September and another early next year.
• The Fed's own survey of major banks, hedge funds and asset managers found the opposite view: no change this year or next, and a cut in 2028.
• New Fed chair Kevin Warsh has repeatedly said inflation is too high for too long, pushing the odds of a September hike to nearly 70%.
• Plenty of Wall Street analysts still think those odds are far too high.

Outlook: One side has to capitulate — and with Warsh, what he actually does will matter more than what he says.