The financial war between the United States and China is heating up below the surface. In the short term this is a warning sign for Taiwan and global markets, but Beijing is not yet ready for an open showdown.

• This week's G20 finance ministers' meeting failed to produce a joint communiqué because China would not accept the phrase "eliminating non-market policies that exacerbate trade imbalances."
• The deadlock is seen as a bellwether for the struggle over a "new Plaza Accord" — the United States used the 1985 Plaza Accord to suppress challenges from the yen and the euro.
• The dollar's hegemony rests on the SWIFT settlement system and the petrodollar, and financial sanctions have long been Washington's most effective weapon.
• China is building its own cross-border payment channels — CIPS, plus CBETS, which only processed its first transaction in July — but genuinely replacing SWIFT will still take time.
• Precisely because these financial countermeasures are not yet mature, China is unlikely to initiate a conflict before 2028 unless it is extremely provoked.

Outlook: American commitments are written in pencil and can be erased at any time. The thing to watch next is how many banks join China's cross-border payment system directly.