Taiwan's 2026 local elections are shaping up as the first big test of President Lai Ching-te, and the opposition KMT currently holds a narrow edge in the marquee New Taipei race.

• Polling puts the KMT's Lee Szu-chuan ahead of the DPP's Su Chiao-hui by under 7 points, close enough to still flip.
• Lee is seen as lacking a clear positive pitch — many voters back him mainly to block Su rather than for his own reasons.
• Su is playing down her party ties, avoiding green branding and keeping DPP heavyweights off her stage, a sign the party's brand is a liability.
• Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an has emerged as the KMT's biggest draw, outshining the party chair, and DPP candidates keep challenging him to debates to grab headlines.
• Beyond New Taipei, Changhua, Chiayi, Yilan, Hsinchu and Taitung are the seats most likely to move.

Outlook: With three months to go, New Taipei stays the race to watch, and a KMT sweep of the swing counties would leave Lai badly weakened heading into the rest of his term.