Chinese pressure on Taiwan's diplomacy is escalating from threats to on-the-ground intimidation, a bad sign for small Pacific countries caught in the middle.

• Unidentified people with mainland Chinese accents hung around a Taiwan-Palau reception during the Pacific Islands Forum summit, photographing guests and noting who attended.
• Taiwan's foreign minister Lin Chia-lung accused Beijing of turning normal social contact into a weapon.
• China had already warned Taiwan there would be "consequences" for taking part, and hit Palau with a travel warning as payback.
• The tactic has gone further before: at a Taiwan National Day reception in Fiji in 2020, Chinese diplomats forced their way in, threatened guests, and injured a Taiwanese official.
• One of the Fiji attackers was never punished and was later posted to Manchester, where he was tied to dragging Hong Kong protesters into the consulate and beating them.

Outlook: Expect more of this shadowing and pressure wherever Taiwan shows up internationally, with the aim of scaring other countries away from contact.