Beijing is squeezing Eswatini, Taiwan's last diplomatic ally in Africa, but the pressure is falling short — a mild win for Taiwan and a sign of China's limits.

• China told its citizens to leave Eswatini, yet the Chinese-built Mpakeni dam project there is going ahead as planned.
• Beijing also cut Eswatini out of the zero-tariff deal it gave 53 other African countries, purely because of the Taiwan link.
• The tariff snub barely stings: South Africa handles most of Eswatini's trade, so China has little leverage.
• Chinese firms keep winning big contracts in Eswatini despite no formal ties, showing business interests do not follow the diplomacy.
• Taiwan has 20 companies and over $100 million invested there, employing thousands, plus close ties to King Mswati III.

Outlook: China can raise the cost of Eswatini's friendship with Taiwan but has few ways to force a switch without hurting its own companies.