A look back at every Bitcoin head-and-shoulders pattern over 15 years finds the setup barely works — neutral to mildly reassuring for holders who panic when chart watchers call a top.

• Of 13 completed neckline breaks since 2011, only seven actually hit their downside target.
• Six failed outright, making the pattern close to a 50/50 bet.
• The one filter that matters is the 200-day moving average, a common trend gauge.
• When the pattern forms above that line, it goes against the trend and the typical drop was just 3%.

Outlook: Bearish chart patterns forming while Bitcoin is still in an uptrend deserve little weight, since the downside they deliver tends to be small.