Big banks are slashing what they think silver is worth, and more downside is expected before any rebound — bad news for people who bought near the highs, good for patient buyers.

• JP Morgan cut its silver forecast for late next year by about 30%, and ING trimmed its targets too.
• Silver has already fallen hard from its January peak, and the run-up looks like it was driven by paper trading, not people actually buying metal.
• Solar panel makers are the big problem: Chinese producers have worked out how to use copper instead of silver, killing off the demand story that fueled the rally.
• A stronger dollar, higher bond yields, and a Fed that may need to raise rates again to fight sticky inflation are all pushing silver down.
• Buyers who paid high prices are likely to give up and sell, adding more pressure on the way down.

Outlook: Silver is likely to keep falling over the next three to six months before the cycle turns and prices rip higher again.