The job market looks stable on the surface, but the way it's being measured is hiding real weakness — bad news for workers, and a risk for stocks if it breaks.

• Private payroll growth came in below expectations and is at its slowest pace since January.
• Fewer people are even counting as looking for work, which makes the unemployment rate look better than it is.
• If those people come back — pushed by higher rates and rising costs — unemployment could jump a full point fast.
• Companies are still making more money, largely on AI, while hiring less and paying smaller raises.
• Uber cutting 10% of staff fits the pattern of trimming after the post-Covid hiring boom.

Outlook: Friday's government jobs report is the next test, and the number that matters is how many people are back in the workforce.